ItsAstronomicalElection Predictions - April 29th, 2024.
Presidential Election
Not much has changed, again
I moved Georgia to Leans Democratic instead of Tilt Democratic, and North Carolina to Tilt Republican.
The fundamentals remain mostly strong for Biden, and although most of the legal cases for Trump have been pushed back, the New York one pulls time and money away he cannot replace.
As of now, I predict Biden will win 303 electoral votes to Trump 235.
| Rating | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|
| Solid | 209 Electoral Votes (including Maine's 1st Congressional District) | 123 Electoral Votes |
| Likely | 16 Electoral Votes (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine at Large) | 57 Electoral Votes (Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine's 2nd District) |
| Lean | 78 Electoral Votes (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District) | 40 Electoral Votes (Texas) |
| Tilt | 0 Electoral Votes | 16 Electoral Votes (North Carolina) |
Senate
As previously mentioned, Ohio-Sen is now Leans Democratic thanks to the decision to nominate Bernie Moreno.
My new, bold stance is now that Michigan-Sen becomes Likely Democratic, with Mike Rogers being not a particularly spectacular nominee, and the Michigan GOP still divided and in chaos.
As previously stated Texas remains Democrat's best chance to pick up a Senate seat. We'll see what happens with Ted Cruz - who struggled to win in 2018.
As of now, I predict Republicans will have 50 Senate Seats to Democrat's 50. Under this map, and my other one, Democrats will have an majority with VP Harris breaking ties.
| Rating | Democrats (Plus Independents in VT and ME) | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Seats Not Up | 28 Seats | 38 Seats |
| Solid | 14 Seats | 10 Seats (West Virginia) |
| Likely | 3 Seats (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) | 1 Seat (Florida) |
| Lean | 3 Seats (Nevada, Arizona, Ohio) | 1 Seats (Texas) |
| Tilt | 1 Seat (Montana) | 0 Seats |
House Of Representatives
My only change now is IA-03, which I have as Lean Republican instead of Tilt Democratic. While Iowa Democrats should expect a better performance than 2022, Nunn has a large fundraising advantage currently.
Outside of that, I have no changes to the map at this juncture. We will wait and see what happens.
As of now, I predict Democrats will have 224 House Seats to Republican's 211 - the ballpark probably being plus or minus 10.
| Rating | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Solid | 168 Seats | 178 Seats |
| Likely | 27 Seats | 19 Seats |
| Lean | 27 Seats | 11 Seats |
| Tilt | 2 Seats | 2 Seats |
Gubernatorial
No changes to the map. Maybe next month, since Robinson seems to be lagging behind in the polls against Stein.
As of now, I predict Republicans will have 27 Governors Mansions to Democrat's 23.
| Rating | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Seats Not Up | 20 Seats | 19 Seats |
| Solid | 2 Seats | 7 Seats |
| Likely | 0 Seats | 0 Seats |
| Lean | 1 Seats (North Carolina) | 1 Seat (New Hampshire) |
| Tilt | 0 Seats | 0 Seats |