ItsAstronomical

Presidential Election

With 11 months out from the Presidential race, I see a lot happening between now and then. I concede if the election was held today, Donald Trump would have a very solid chance of winning.

But it's not being held today. It's being held in 11 months.

And I think a lot will change in 11 months.

For starters, the economy will almost certainly be in a better shape - gas prices are projected to fall too. I'm not going to pretend it'll be perfect again, it's going to be better than it is today.

Second - Donald Trump is very unpopular as well. He will recieve a lot of extra coverage once he is the nominee for Republicans, and I think this will serve to hurt him.

My final note is evidence points towards an actual conviction harming Trump's campaign to the point of no return. Trump holds a lead now, but nationwide would be 49% to 39% if he's convicted. I believe he will be convicted this year.

As of now, I predict Biden will win 303 electoral votes to Trump 235.

Rating	Biden	Trump
Solid	209 Electoral Votes (including Maine's 1st Congressional District)	123 Electoral Votes
Likely	16 Electoral Votes (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine at Large)	57 Electoral Votes (Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine's 2nd District)
Lean	62 Electoral Votes (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District)	56 Electoral Votes (Texas, North Carolina)
Tilt	16 Electoral Votes (Georgia)	0 Electoral Votes

Senate

This one is more of a best guess. Right now, I have Republicans at 51 Seats and Democrats at 49. The fact is this map is the most hostile maps for Democrats out of all three classes. It presents few pickups and many seats needed to hold at a time when Democrats hold a thin majority.

I wouldn't count Democrats out, and I do wanna make note of a few races.

I currently have Ohio as Lean Republican, since we don't know who will win the Republican primary. Sherrod Brown (D) is perhaps the only Democrat who could win statewide, but it will be a heavy lift this year in such a large state. If Bernie Moreno is the Republican Primary, I would feel comfortable moving this to Tilt Democratic, which would make West Virginia the only flip state and make the Senate tied (with Harris, likely relected, breaking ties).

I think Texas is by far Democrats' best chance to pick up a Senate Seat. I Hate Ted Cruz (R), and polling shows I'm not the only one. I think he's vulnerable in the Lone Star State, provided the environment is the right condition.

I'm giving Montana to incumbent Jon Tester (D). I just think it's hard to believe someone with a 60% approval rating going down, even in Montana. Tester's a tough guy, he's survived hard races before.

Montana, Ohio, and Texas are the three races to watch. Keep note of Arizona too, where I think Representative Ruben Gallego (D) will win this seat back from actual DINO Kyrsten Sinema.

As of now, I predict Republicans will have 51 Senate Seats to Democrat's 49.

Rating	Democrats (Plus Independents in VT and ME)	Republicans
Seats Not Up	28 Seats	38 Seats
Solid	14 Seats	10 Seats (1 Flip - West Virginia)
Likely	2 Seats (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)	1 Seat (Florida)
Lean	3 Seats (Michigan, Nevada, Arizona)	2 Seats (Texas, and Ohio would be a flip)
Tilt	1 Seat (Montana)	0 Seats

House Of Representatives

Curses! I appear to be restrained by my visual style - until I made my own custom map. The second image provided is a map of the delegation totals (so the darker a state is, the more seats from said party it elects). I still have an exact House Prediction, though it's sort of a ballpark rather than an exact guess with my last few.

I am damn near convinced the Speakership drama will cost Republicans the House. Not every House Republican will be punished for it, especially some who had nothing to do with it. But I do think Democrats are favored to take the House as of now on the simple fact that the chicanery of the last year or so has bothered voters.

For starters, in New York, Democrats will pick up anywhere between 5-7 seats from a brutal gerrymander alone. That itself probably cancels out a horrific gerrymander installed by the North Carolina Republican, at least in terms of seat count (which turned 3 blue/swing seats solid red, and one into a tossup).

Voting Rights Act lawsuits have helped Democrats pick up an Alabama seat, and probably a Louisiana one as well.

2022 was a bad year for California Democrats, and I expect 2024 to be better. I have them picking up CA-13 and CA-22 for now just from that fact alone. House members like Mike Garcia could go down, but none of them are really lied to the speakership drama enough for them to be especially pulled down.

I have Jen Kiggans in Virginia losing, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon losing as well.

As of now, I predict Democrats will have ~226 House Seats to Republican's 209 - the ballpark being plus or minus 10.

Rating	Democrats	Republicans
Solid	166 Seats	179 Seats
Likely	34 Seats	18 Seats
Lean	23 Seats	10 Seats
Tilt	3 Seats	2 Seats

Gubernatorial

This one isn't nearly as interesting. Most of these races are solid for one party or another. I will say that if Governor Phil Scott in Vermont chooses to retire, that race becomes Solid Democratic.

Right now, I have North Carolina as Leans Democratic. Attorney General Josh Stein is the likely Democratic nominee, running against far-right (I don't use that lightly) Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Since being elected as Lt. Gov, Robinson has had a lot more coverage and scrutinty, and despite the Republican lean of the state, I believe it will be too much for Robinson to overcome.

I have New Hampshire as Tilt Democratic. I don't think we have enough information on whether or not Kelly Ayotte is a good candidate or not. She has won big in the past, but New Hampshire is not the same state that gave her 60% of the vote in her Senate bid in 2010. This one will move more firmly into one column or another as time goes on.

As of now, I predict Republicans will have 26 Governors Mansions to Democrat's 24.

Rating	Democrats	Republicans
Seats Not Up	20 Seats	19 Seats
Solid	2 Seats	7 Seats
Likely	0 Seats	0 Seats
Lean	1 Seats (North Carolina)	0 Seats
Tilt	1 Seat (New Hampshire)	0 Seats