ItsAstronomical

Presidential Election

Heads up - I avoid repeating myself, so make sure you read last month's predictions.

We're now 10 months out from the election, and there's not much changed here. You can see my last post for more info, but the fundamentals remain - the circumstances of 2024 make a Biden/Trump rematch favorable to Biden. Trump's problems outweigh Biden's - and believe me, Biden has plenty.

My electoral map has not changed between this month and last month for President of the United States.

As of now, I predict Biden will win 303 electoral votes to Trump 235.

Rating	Biden	Trump
Solid	209 Electoral Votes (including Maine's 1st Congressional District)	123 Electoral Votes
Likely	16 Electoral Votes (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine at Large)	57 Electoral Votes (Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine's 2nd District)
Lean	62 Electoral Votes (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District)	56 Electoral Votes (Texas, North Carolina)
Tilt	16 Electoral Votes (Georgia)	0 Electoral Votes

Senate

Like the Presidency, this one is stagnant. Don't expect many changes until after the primaries.

Keep an eye on Montana and Ohio. If Representative Matt Rosendale or Businessman Bernie Moreno win the Republican nomination in each state respectively, Montana will go to Lean Democratic, and Ohio will go to Tilt Democratic, respectively.

Texas remains Democrat's best chance to pick up a Senate seat. We'll see what happens with Ted Cruz - who struggled to win in 2018.

As of now, I predict Republicans will have 51 Senate Seats to Democrat's 49.

Rating	Democrats (Plus Independents in VT and ME)	Republicans
Seats Not Up	28 Seats	38 Seats
Solid	14 Seats	10 Seats (1 Flip - West Virginia)
Likely	2 Seats (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)	1 Seat (Florida)
Lean	3 Seats (Michigan, Nevada, Arizona)	2 Seats (Texas, and Ohio would be a flip)
Tilt	1 Seat (Montana)	0 Seats

House Of Representatives

Like last time - I am damn near convinced the Speakership drama will cost Republicans the House. Some incumbents will go down, but it'll be a case-by-case basis. The main changes is I now moved Pennsylvania's 7th to Leans Democratic given a solid fundraising haul by Susan Wild and a lack of a solid Republican challenger. I've also moved Iowa's 3rd to Tilt Democratic since I think it better reflects the lack of a solid challenger to incumbent Nunn, though I still believe that 2022 was the bottom falling out for Iowa Democrats, and next year will see a turnout recovery.

One of the clear downsides of ousting McCarthy for Republicans is that Mike Johnson is little more than a backbencher thrusted into the position of Speaker. Johnson is no fundraiser like McCarthy was, and that'll show next fall. Money isn't everything, but it's sure worth something in politics.

As of now, I predict Democrats will have ~227 House Seats to Republican's 208 - the ballpark probably being plus or minus 10.

Rating	Democrats	Republicans
Solid	168 Seats	177 Seats
Likely	24 Seats	20 Seats
Lean	31 Seats	9 Seats
Tilt	4 Seats	2 Seats

Gubernatorial

I'll begin like last time by mentioning if Governor Phil Scott in Vermont chooses to retire, that race becomes Solid Democratic. North Carolina remains Lean Democratic, for reasons I explained lat time - with Mark Robinson (R) being a weak candidate.

I've moved New Hampshire to Leans Republican, largely due to her consistent polling lead and New Hampshire's more down-ballot Republican nature. Keep an eye out on this one, because it'll more likely slide into one column or another as time goes on.

As of now, I predict Republicans will have 27 Governors Mansions to Democrat's 23.

Rating	Democrats	Republicans
Seats Not Up	20 Seats	19 Seats
Solid	2 Seats	7 Seats
Likely	0 Seats	0 Seats
Lean	1 Seats (North Carolina)	1 Seat (New Hampshire)
Tilt	0 Seats	0 Seats