ItsAstronomical

Presidential Election

I'm a little late, but hey - better late than never. Plus, I got a new map design!

The fundamentals remain the same. Biden's favorited to win, Trump has legal and financial problems, blah blah blah. But since I haven't changed my predictions at all, I really do want to hit home how much the money difference between the two matters.

Biden is at around $100 Million in his war chest, without having to deal with a complicated and drawn out primary (even Trump had to actually take it seriously). The Trump campaign is at a mere $30 Million, and they've likely isolated some Haley donors with threats of blacklisting them. A $70 million difference doesn't inherently change votes, but if handled correctly, it can really, really make the difference in funding crucial operations.

As of now, I predict Biden will win 303 electoral votes to Trump 235.

Rating	Biden	Trump
Solid	209 Electoral Votes (including Maine's 1st Congressional District)	123 Electoral Votes
Likely	16 Electoral Votes (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine at Large)	57 Electoral Votes (Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine's 2nd District)
Lean	62 Electoral Votes (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District)	56 Electoral Votes (Texas, North Carolina)
Tilt	16 Electoral Votes (Georgia)	0 Electoral Votes

Senate

Part of the reason I waited until March 20th was to take in the Ohio Primary. Bernie Moreno not only outperformed my expectations but won the primary with an outright majority, likely thanks to a crucial Trump endorsement.

With this, I am putting Ohio back on the board for Democrats. Sherrod Brown is now favored to win as Ohio-Sen becomes Leans Democratic. I considered moving it to just Tilt, but I feel as though Matt Dolan's margin was also sizable, and I expect there will be those in the Dolan camp uneasy about voting for Moreno.

As previously stated Texas remains Democrat's best chance to pick up a Senate seat. We'll see what happens with Ted Cruz - who struggled to win in 2018.

As of now, I predict Republicans will have 50 Senate Seats to Democrat's 50. Under this map, and my other one, Democrats will have an majority with VP Harris breaking ties.

Rating	Democrats (Plus Independents in VT and ME)	Republicans
Seats Not Up	28 Seats	38 Seats
Solid	14 Seats	10 Seats (West Virginia)
Likely	2 Seats (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)	1 Seat (Florida)
Lean	4 Seats (Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio)	1 Seats (Texas)
Tilt	1 Seat (Montana)	0 Seats

House Of Representatives

Well, damn. It appears I overestimated how brutal the New York gerrymander would be. I have Democrats picking up 3 seats now - not the 5-7 I expected may happen. These seats would be NY-04 with Anthony D'Esposito, and NY-17 with Mike Lawler at Leans Democratic, while NY-19 with Mark Molinaro at Tilt Democratic

Outside of that, I have no changes to the map at this juncture. We will wait and see what happens.

As of now, I predict Democrats will have 225 House Seats to Republican's 210 - the ballpark probably being plus or minus 10.

Rating	Democrats	Republicans
Solid	168 Seats	178 Seats
Likely	24 Seats	20 Seats
Lean	28 Seats	10 Seats
Tilt	4 Seats	2 Seats

Gubernatorial

Governor Phil Scott in Vermont is still deciding whether to run for re-election or not. If he retires, that race becomes Solid Democratic - a very strange turnaround from it's current Solid Republican rating. With Mark Robinson being nominated by Republicans, North Carolina remains Lean Democratic. As a Pennsylvanian, Mark Robinson reminds me an awful lot of Doug Mastriano, and we all know what happened there.

The Granite State of New Hampshire remains Leans Republican, but I very much can be swayed here. Polling is quite sparse here, and this is one race where more info on the ground could help.

As of now, I predict Republicans will have 27 Governors Mansions to Democrat's 23.

Rating	Democrats	Republicans
Seats Not Up	20 Seats	19 Seats
Solid	2 Seats	7 Seats
Likely	0 Seats	0 Seats
Lean	1 Seats (North Carolina)	1 Seat (New Hampshire)
Tilt	0 Seats	0 Seats